Welcome to the Fall 2011 homepage for CMPSCI 240: Reasoning About Uncertainty
- Instructor:
- Andrew McGregor.
- Office hours: 2:30pm to 3:30pm Thursday in CMPS 334
- TA:
- Phil Kirlin
- Office hours: 2-3pm Monday, 10-11am Thursday in LGRT 220
- Lectures:
- Tuesday, Thursday, 1:00 to 2:15 pm in CMPS 142. Discussion Thursday 4:00 to 4:50 in CMPS 142.
- Textbooks:
- Reasoning About Uncertainty by David Mix Barrington
- Introduction to Probability by Charles M. Grinstead and J. Laurie Snell. See here for solution of the odd numbered exercises.
- Homeworks:
- Homework 1: Posted 9/8 (Thursday) and due 9/15 (Thursday). Solutions.
- Homework 2: Posted 9/29 (Tuesday) and due 10/6 (Thursday). Solutions.
- Homework 3: Posted 10/13 (Thursday) and due 10/25 (Tuesday). Solutions.
- Homework 4: Posted 11/1 (Tuesday) and due 11/8 (Tuesday). Solutions.
- Homework 5: Posted 11/8 (Tuesday) and due 11/15 (Tuesday). Solutions.
- Homework 6 and 7: First Part Posted 11/23 (Tuesday) and due 12/8 (Thursday). Solutions.
- Homework 2: Posted 9/29 (Tuesday) and due 10/6 (Thursday). Solutions.
- Homework 1: Posted 9/8 (Thursday) and due 9/15 (Thursday). Solutions.
- Programming Assignments:
- Assignment 1: Posted 9/15 (Thursday) and due 11:59pm, 9/29 (Thursday).
- Assignment 2: Posted 10/6 (Thursday) and due 11:59pm, 10/20 (Thursday).
- Assignment 3: Posted 11/6 (Sunday) and due 11:59pm, 11/17 (Thursday).
- Assignment 4: Posted 11/20 (Sunday) and due 11:59pm, 12/6 (Tuesday).
- Help Page: For further notes and a FAQ, check out the page Phil set up.
- Grade Breakdown:
- Midterm Exams (30%): There will be three midterm exams each counting 10% of your grade.
- Final Exam (25%): This will be during the December final exam period as scheduled by the University, and will be cumulative, though with greater emphasis on the last quarter of the course. You will have two hours. This exam will count for 25% of your final grade, except that I will count it for 50%, and reduce the weights of all other components proportionally, if this is to your advantage.
- Homework (15%): There will be seven homework assignments during the term. Together they will count for 15% of your final grade. Homework is due at the start of class and late homework will receive zero marks... but only the best six of the seven will count, for 2.5% each. You may discuss the homework in groups of at most 3, but you must write solutions separately. Write who you discussed the problems with.
- Discussions (10%): About four of the Thursday discussion periods will have in-class writing assignments, usually based on "Excursion" sections of the text. You will be divided randomly into groups of two or three and each group will hand in a response to the assignment. These will be graded "check" (B) or "check-plus" (A), and the best three of your four will count for 10% of your total grade.
- Programming Projects (20%): Each section of the course will have a programming project for which you will hand in code. The project may be done in (student-chosen) pairs. Note that exam and homework questions may refer to the body of code in the projects. Together they will count for 20% of your final grade. Late assignments will receive zero marks... but only the best three of the four will count, for 6.66% each. Note that some of the Thursday discussion periods are devoted to introducing or working on the programming projects.
- Academic Honesty Policy:
All work submitted must be your own in presentation. Furthermore,
- Exams: Closed-book and no outside help is allowed.
- Programming projects: You may use the two course textbooks and generic Java textbooks. You can’t use any preexisting code that isn’t given to you by the TA/instructor.
- Homework: No reference material (e.g., the web) is allowed other than the course textbooks and slides. Can only discuss homework with your group and the TA/instructor.
| Date | Description | Materials | Due | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PART I: Basic Probability and Counting | |||||
| Tue 6 Sept | Overview and Basic Probability Definitions | Slides | |||
| Thu 8 Sept | Probability Definitions and Counting | Slides | |||
| Thu 8 Sept | Discussion: The Problem of Sorting | ||||
| Tue 13 Sept | Double-Counting and Inclusion/Exclusion | Slides | |||
| Thu 15 Sept | First and Second Counting Problems | Slides | HW1 | ||
| Thu 15 Sept | Discussion: Programming Assignment #1 | ||||
| Tue 20 Sept | Third and Fourth Counting Problems | Slides | |||
| Thu 22 Sept | Counting Poker Hands | Slides | |||
| Thu 22 Sept | Discussion: Revision for First Midterm | Slides Exam S10 (Solutions), Exam F09 (Solutions), Exam S09 (Solutions) | |||
| Tue 27 Sept | FIRST MIDTERM | Exam (Solutions) | |||
| PART II: Probability and Expected Value | |||||
| Thu 29 Sept | Random Variables and Expectation | Slides | PA1 | ||
| Thu 29 Sept | Discussion: Programming Assignment #2 | ||||
| Tue 4 Oct | Variance and Binomial Distribution | Slides | |||
| Thu 6 Oct | Geometric Distribution and Coupons | Slides | HW2 | ||
| Thu 6 Oct | Discussion: Analysis of Craps | ||||
| Tue 11 Oct | No Class (Monday Schedule) | ||||
| Thu 13 Oct | Markov and Chebyshev | Slides | |||
| Thu 13 Oct | Discussion: Exam and Homework Review | ||||
| Tue 18 Oct | Finishing Coupons and Union Bounds | Slides | |||
| Thu 20 Oct | Hashing and Walking | Slides | PA2 | ||
| Thu 20 Oct | Discussion: Revision for Second Midterm | Handout Exam S10 (Solutions), Exam F09 (Solutions), Exam S09 (Solutions) | |||
| Tue 25 Oct | SECOND MIDTERM | Exam (Solutions) | HW3 | ||
| PART III: Probabilistic Reasoning | |||||
| Thu 27 Oct | Conditional Probability and Event Trees | Slides | |||
| Thu 27 Oct | Discussion: Going over exam | ||||
| Tue 1 Nov | Bayes and Total Probability | Slides | |||
| Thu 3 Nov | Priors and Bayesian Reasoning | Slides | |||
| Thu 3 Nov | Discussion: Programming Assignment #3 Overview | ||||
| Tue 8 Nov | Combining Data | Slides | HW4 | ||
| Thu 10 Nov | Naive Bayes Classifiers | Slides | |||
| Thu 10 Nov | Discussion: Revision for Third Midterm | Handout Exam S10 (Solutions), Exam F09 (Solutions), Exam S09 (Solutions) Note that some of the answers use ``odds" in their calculation whereas in more recent incarnations of the course (including this one) we've used Bayes Formula and priors more directly. | |||
| Tue 15 Nov | THIRD MIDTERM | Exam (Solutions) | HW5 | ||
| PART IV: Markov Processes and Information Theory | |||||
| Thu 17 Nov | Markov Chains | Slides | PA3 | ||
| Thu 17 Nov | Discussion: Programming Assignment #4 Overview | ||||
| Tue 22 Nov | Steady State Distributions | Slides | |||
| Thu 24 Nov | No Class (Thanksgiving) | ||||
| Thu 24 Nov | No Class (Thanksgiving) | ||||
| Tue 29 Nov | Markov Decision Processes | Slides | |||
| Thu 1 Dec | Game Theory | Slides | |||
| Thu 1 Dec | Discussion: Analysis of Blackjack | ||||
| Tue 6 Dec | Information Theory for Transmission | Slides | PA4 | ||
| Thu 8 Dec | Information Theory for Compression | Slides | HW6/7 | ||
| Thu 8 Dec | Discussion: Revision for Final Exam | Handout Exam S10 (Solutions), Exam F09 (Solutions), Exam S09 (Solutions) | |||
| 12 Dec | FINAL EXAM: 4pm ECSC0119 | ||||